Blonde moment

And the silver spoon.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

The Election

It is 6:03 pm. Foxnews just called the following using exit polls:
GA-Bush
IN-Bush
KY-Bush
VT-Kerry
Score: Bush 34; Kerry 3

I'm going to switch to Salem Radio for a while.

6:10 pm. Hugh Hewitt encouraged Minnesotans to get out and vote. They have a first time voter, Kyle, on line. A first time voter. Sounds like he voted for Bush. Go Kyle!

6:16 pm. I am not particularly interested in the Senate Races; and I'm not too sure who is running right now. If anyone reading is interested in a particular race, I'll look it up or track it for you. Just give me a write.

6:25 pm. Hugh is talking about Tommy boy in SD. If one of my folks out there check in, provide a little commentary on how your friends feel. I know that Mom out in SD doesn't like him. Understatement of the year. Other Senate races of interest that I forgot about (my bad) are Illinois and also Georgia. Republicans picked up in Georgia.

6:30 pm. Hugh gave us a reminder to check out the Northern Alliance. They're down at the local Salem affiliate (or will be soon). AM 1280. Give it a listen.

6:35 pm. Foxnews just called West Virginia. Bush 39 Kerry 3

6:37 pm. Back to Hugh (more interesting right now the Fox) had some Minnesota callers in. They have had some good points. We need to also win the popular vote as well as the electoral vote.

To Minnesotans, if you havn't voted get out and do so!

Some commentary on voting, while we're in a lull. It has been 75 years since women were given the right to vote. This was a hard fought win. And so, on my way home from work today, I was thinking of the powerful thing it is to vote. My Grandpa's mother, Lulu, died before women got the vote. How powerful is this, women? Who in your families have voted? I got confirms from Becky and Hermionygonzo that they both voted. My own dearest Mom voted. My Granny voted. I'm fairly sure my Aunts and Grandma in Illinois have voted, but I don't have a confirm. But, those of us in our 20's and 30's, are moms have always been able to vote. Our grandmothers have always been able to vote. But, go back one more generation, and we should start feeling very fortunate. A moment of silence for those who have gone before us without the right to vote.

6:48 pm. My Josh just brought me Subway! What a great husband!

7:03 pm. To Hermionygonzo: In MN, if you're in line at 8pm, you get the vote.

New results:
Alabama Bush
Maine, Maryland, Mass., New York Kerry

Bush 48 Kerry 74

It looks like Fox is adding some to their tally that haven't been called, but merely projected. I'm keeping track of those called.

Gay marriages and civil unions banned in Ohio.

7:14 pm Foxnews
Kerry Illinois
Bush South Carolina

Kerry 95 Bush 56

Per Hermionygonzo: Good point. The Evangelical Protestant church is a factor. But what we’re looking at is not just the EFC. Actually, I really don’t keep track of the Free Church. Basically, what that term refers to is the people who refer to themselves as "Born Again Christians." Mostly they go to similar non-litergical churches, though I do think that the Missouri Synod Lutheran Church would probably fall into this category. Most of these people are pro-life, and vote for traditional heterosexual family values. They are the type of people that listen to Focus on the Family and other conservative think tanks. Basically, these people, like me, consider themselves in a culture war. They want the ability to pray in schools. They don't want to have to explain sex to their kids too early. They want to be able to share the gospel with others. Very radical liberals have hopefully awaken a sleeping beast.

Per Foxnews, Bush is wining the popular vote with 56%.

7:35 pm. Alan Keyes lost the Senate race in IL.
5 million to 3 million Bush on top popular vote.
Oklahoma Bush
Tennessee Bush
Virginia Bush
102 Bush 94 Kerry.
Info from Foxnews

We're going to keep track of Fox news for a while. Sorry to Hugh Hewitt. Not that he'll take this one personally. I'll switch back in a few hours when the action slow down. I'm going to take a quick break to see if there is any action with the Northern Alliance. Be back in a few.

7:46 pm A special thanks to Josh. I guess this is what I get for being a very good sport during baseball. Not that I hate baseball; 7 days a week is a little much for me, and I stuck it out. Josh is keeping up with which states are called, and also the popular vote. What a guy!

States with 10+ votes left:
Arizona
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New Jersey
Washington
Wisconsin

States with 20+ votes left:
California
Florida
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

Rhode Island Kerry.
Bush 102 Kerry 98

7:57 pm So far Fox says that 77% of Minnesota voters decided a month ago. 5% decided today. Voters here are saying it’s a good economy, that the war is going badly, and that they disapprove of Bush.

Now, my dearest Mom listens to WCCO Radio. And they have a call in poll from 3am to 5am each Monday before the election. She was saying that Bush has consistantly won. This poll called 200, Ventura's election, and also the 2002 election. So, perhaps there is still hope for a Republican victory here.

8:05 pm
Foxnews:
Kansas Bush
Nebraska Bush
North Dakota Bush
South Dakota Bush (thanks family!)
Texas Bush
Wyoming Bush
New Jersey Kerry
156 Bush 113 Kerry

24 states left to call.

Bush leads in Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio, Florida, trails in Missouri, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania.

Our sympathies to Hugh Hewitt: Kerry has 10 states and DC; a slim chance that Kerry could take as many as 15, per Josh.

107,000 for Alan Keyes, the Democrat has over 1,000,000

7 States are too close to call!

This is exciting!

So, here’s my little commentary on other races. I voted for John Kline. And I did follow the Fraters and wrote in Scott Johnson for unopposed judicial races.

With 1% of precincts in, Bush is leading in MN; 52%!

8,828,061 to 7,328,863 million Bush is up in the popular vote.

Josh is very disappointed because no one is saying anything stupid. I must say that I concur to an extent. But I learned to appreciate watching votes come in, thanks to the Kevin-O-Meister's first state house run.

8:25, polls have been closed here in Minnesota for a while. So, we're also going to start listening for local elections, primarily Congressional races. We have a slight lull in the action.

State of Florida: 65% support the measure saying that parents need to be notified if minor children want to get an abortion! Pro life victory!

8:33pm Louisiana Bush
Bush 165; Kerry 113

Per Foxnews; Bush is leading New Mexico. Great news!

Some more commentary back to Evangelical Christian questions. I hate sounding like a conspiracy theorist. However, a lot of Conservative Christians feel like there is a culture war going on. First off, there is a trend in churches moving away from Orthodox Christianity. When I say Orthodox Christianity, I'm talking about those who believe in such statements of faith as the Apostles Creed, and generally take an inerrant or close to inerrant view of the Bible. Conservative Christians feel under attack by those with unorthodox views. Some of the threat comes from those who add elements to Christianity such as godess worship.

The traditional Christian point of view is this:
All of mankind are sinners deserving of eternal damnation in Hell (don't you love that term; very descriptive).
Because mankind are deserving of eternal damnation; God sent His son, Jesus, into the world as a sacrafice for our sins.
If people acknowledge their sinfulness, repent of their sins, which means that they will leave their life of sin with the help of the Holy Spirit, and ask God to forgive them of their sins for the sake of Jesus. Then, upon death or rapture, the repentant soul will join God in Heaven.

North Dakota: Marriage should be between a man and a woman.

Taking a quick break to publish.

8:58pm
Mississippi Bush
Utah Bush
Bush 176; Kerry 113

Interesting is that Delaware was called earlier for Kerry, but Bush is leading there right now. I'm not changing my count because Fox hasn't changed their designation.

Back to Christian values:
Since the church is splitting between the orthodox and the new age; there is a bit of a culture war in the church. No wonder the conservatives feel like there is a huge problem with traditional values. As conservatives often feel that there is not a voice for them in places where they often found a platform, namely, church; they are starting to express their voice in the ballot. Some of these people are conservatives who voted the union line with the Democrats. Some of these people are farmers who voted the rural line with the Deomcrats.

Now, some may say, if they do not like their church; they should leave. Leaving a church is just as hard as leaving a poltical party. And it is easier to vote for the opposite candidate then it is to change churches.

Break to publish.

9:15 pm
Bush Arkansas
Bush Missouri
Bush Montana
Bush 196; Kerry 113

18 States left and this is going to be exciting because there are some key states coming up. Florida, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa.

Back to the Evangelicals:
The question is how to express their values? Some of the things Christians fear is that they will be unable to teach their children about sex; that they will not be able to teach their children about rights to life; that they will not be able to teach their children truth about the Bible. They do not want a big conflict between what is being taught at home and what is being taught at school. And, a reasonable person might say, "Why should there be a difference? Why should some of these issues be discussed, or discussed at a grade school level?"

And when various statistics say that between 1 and 10 percent of the population is homosexual; and perhaps up to 40% of the population is Conservative Christian, it seems strange that there is such a disparity in media coverage of issues. This is just evidence that perhaps there is truth to the theory that the squeeky wheel gets the oil. I am not condemning the homosexuals for the way they campaign for their rights. On the contrary, others should be as vocal and well organized. I give them credit for reaching the magnitude of people that they get the message out to.

Basically, the big problem that the conservative Christians have is that they feel unheard. Some may say that they have been heard in the past; but the culture has changed so much in my short life. When you talk to the average conservative Christian, they will say a few things that are surprising to a liberal voice. We do not hate homosexuals, we do not hate abortionists, we do not hate heretics (well, maybe the heretics). We will be among the first in line to extend a hand to help people out. We can work and live with people that we disagree with. We just want some respect, and not to be called unintelligent.

9:30-

I think one of the things that Evangelical Christians need to do is to come up with arguments apart from "the Bible says" to back up their political beliefs. For example, abortion. Yes, the Bible says that murder is wrong. Let us get more basic. I would argue that a woman has the right to do what she wants with her body. However, what does one define as a person’s body? I would argue that a unique individual is defined by a unique set of DNA. This gives not the mother with property rights over what to do about an unborn child, but the unborn child. Also, from an atheist point of view: Atheists believe that this life is all we’ve got. How dare someone take away the one and only chance a unique person has to live and enjoy their life?

9:50 quick update on Delaware: It is a Kerry State. no change in electoral vote counts.

10 pm:
States too close to call:
Ohio
Florida
New Hampshire
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Iowa

Pennsylvania Kerry
Bush 196 Kerry 134

California, Oregon, and Washington are now closed. These will probably put Kerry ahead again tonight.

10:00 pm:
States too close to call:
Ohio
Florida
New Hampshire
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Iowa
California
Oregon
Hawaii

Idaho, Bush
Bush 200; Kerry 134

I have never thought that I would put California as too close to call! Of the 16 states left to call, 13 are too close! What excitement! What drama! I’ll be up for a while. Thanks to Julie for letting me take off tomorrow!

10:15
Washington Kerry
Bush 200; Kerry 144

McCain will be representing AZ again in the Senate. (I guess there are interesting Senate races, after all.)

California voted in favor of taxpayer funding for stem cell research.

Florida: ACLU filed suit in Miami Dade and Broward Counties because the powers that be did not put some absentee ballots in the mail until Sunday. They'd like this deadline extended until November 12. As I am tempted to roll my eyes, this was just a dumb move by the absentee ballot mailing people.

10:20pm
Arizona Bush
Bush 210; Kerry 144

10:45pm
There was a mistake in the Foxnews reporting of the Flordia suit. It was filed in Miami Dade and Broward, not Palm Beach. I have fixed the situation and linked to the ACLU site.

Also, the following states have banned homosexual marriages:
Arkansas
Georgia
Kentucky
Michigan
Mississippi
Montana
Oklahoma
Ohio

Fox still reports the following states as too close to call:
Ohio
Florida
New Hampshire
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Colorado
New Mexico
Iowa
California
Oregon
Hawaii

These other states still have not been called:
Alaska
Nevada
New Mexico

11:05pm Still no change in the Presidential Election. Other networks are calling Florida, but the Foxnews people are going with caution. Bush does lead in Florida; and that is how other networks are calling it. I will keep my results in line with what Foxnews has.

According to the Star Tribune:
Minnesota Congressional Races:
District 1: with 34% of the precincts reporting, Gutknecht
District 2: with 60% of the precincts reporting, Kline
District 3: with 93% of the precincts reporting, Ramstad
District 4: with 87% of the precincts reporting, McCollum
District 5: with 69% of the precincts reporting, Sabo
District 6: too close to call
District 7: with 31% of the precincts reporting, Peterson
No other news to report.

11:19
California Kerry
Oregon Kerry
Florida Bush (98% of the precincts are in, I'm going to call it)
Bush 237 Kerry 207

11:25
Colorado Bush
Bush 246 Kerry 207

11:35
It's time to go back to the radio. It's been more of the same on TV, so I'm listening to the Northern Alliance and Hugh Hewitt on AM 1280, The Patriot. I could do pretty links here, but I'm getting tired. I'll fix this tomorrow morning.

Remember with Minnesota, outstate Minnesota hasn't been counted yet. This could make a difference.

Hewitt has a good question going from a caller. Not very many people know about the electoral college. Since I've been watching elections for a while, I remember my 4th grade teacher's lesson on electoral votes. For those not as fortunate as me, The Federal Register has a great site about the electoral college and voting.

People are calling in to Hewitt saying that Thune is still ahead in South Dakota. I, too, have my doubts that he will actually win, but Mom in South Dakota has her hopes and she called in pretty happy about Thune tonight.

Fox called Ohio for Bush with 87% in! I hope that I will not have to take this back later tonight! According to my Excel electoral vote counter, Bush 266; Kerry 207 (I am giving Kerry all of Maine, and others have not done so).

Midnight:
My poor husband has been asleep for two hours. So I just gave him the good news about Ohio and Florida.
Minnesota Congressional District 5: Kennedy with 53%.

I must say that this does not surprise me. Patty Wetterling was not prepared to run for congress. In a couple of years, with preparation, she will be a formidable apponent. It just doesn't seem like she is educated about issues. Also, Jack Welsh did not help.

The Associated Press is calling Minnesota for Kerry, but I'm still joining the Northern Alliance in optomism. We may deliver Minnesota for Bush, yet.

Thune is up with 84%, but we still haven't counted the reservations yet; so watch out. Tommy boy still may get in.

Well, what was Foxnews expect? Of course this is not the year of the young voter. It is never the year of the young voter, unless your Ventura in Minnesota in 1998. No, the candidates are not going to talk about "relavent" issues to youth. But, wait, maybe they do. Perhaps it is the youth who do not see how relavent some of these things are. Do the young people really want to pay higher Social Security Taxes? Do the young people really want to pay for Socialized Health Care? Do the young people REALLY want to give up our sovereignty (I'm sure this is spelled wrong, but I have a learning disability, and the computer thinks that spell check is a virus) to the whims of the UN. The UN, by the way, has a lot more dictator and anti democratic states then they do Democracies. Plus, most young people don't care. Now, no offence to Hermionegonzo or The Twin or The Twin's friends who came to church on Sunday. They were all informed. And they all seemed like the voting type. I'm not sure why people were expecting a huge turnout. After all, P.Diddy, Demi Moore's kept man Ashton, and Leo, are not all that, as far as influence.

Alaska Bush
Minnesota Kerry
Bush 268; Kerry 217

12:14 am, Thanks to Hermionegonzo for her comments on CNN. For me, TV has become too repetitive, so I'm listening to talk radio. Hermionegonzo, would you give a run down on how some of these states are being called on CNN:
Minnesota
Ohio
Colorado
Iowa
Wisconsin

Hewitt is reporting that Bush is ahead in IA with 86% of the vote in.

12:19 am, I'd like to give a special thanks to Hermionegonzo. What a great sister! She comments on my blog late at night when she has school tomorrow. She gently mocks my excitement in following some of Foxnews's calls when CNN has something different! How great!

Daschel is back at a 3000 vote lead according to CNN? Too busy typing to hear. I'm trying to keep the radio noise at a minimum so Josh doesn't wake up.

12:30 am, there is some discussion on whether or not Kerry will concede and when. You know, I would rather that the election ends tonight/this morning. I don't think the US can afford another Florida. It's my guess that it will be 3am before anyone says anything.

IA, 96% in, Bush has the lead. He's about 7,000 up
NM, unsure of the % in, but Bush has a 5,000 lead.
In MN, there is a 4.5% gap, Kerry ahead; 73% reporting. Bush would have to get 2/3 of the remaining vote to get MN, and this is unlikely.
Now Thune is up 5000 in SD. There was a bit of a mistake on Hewitt/Northern Alliance a few minutes ago.

12:45 am. Thanks to Hermionegonzo. It looks like my count and CNN's count are different because OH, FL, and a couple of others.

CNN called MN. But, I called that a bit ago. No change in my count.

Mitch from Shot in the Dark make a good analysis of MN. Kerry had to play defence here. We've turned pretty Republican lately. During my first election (1996), we had only 2 Republican Congressmen. Now, we have 4. We have a conservative Republican governor. We have genuinely moved right. Kerry is not that secure here. In two years, the Dayton campaign will be interesting.

12:55 am: Captain Ed (link to follow) has just called Iowa. So, as far as the Foxnews/Northern Alliance/Hugh Hewitt/Blonde Liz calls go, Bush has won.

Iowa Bush
Bush 276, Kerry 217

Now for the statistic that Josh has been wanting:
Kerry has taken 15 states and DC thus far; the 10 state call was wrong.

In SD: 90% in Thune is up with 6000. He is the likely winner.

As of 1am, Foxnews called Senate race for Thune.

A nod towards Hermionegonzo's comment on Ohio beint to close to call: Foxnews thinks that 100,000 votes is a secure lead, considering 94% is in.

As of 1:10am, it sounds like people on Hewitt's show don't think Kerry will concede tonight. I'll probably stay up another hour or so. I've checked my results against Foxnews, and at this point, the only state that I have called that Foxnews hasn't is Iowa. According to CNN Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michgan, and Ohio have not been called yet. I stand my picks at this point.

The last post and the analysis:
I have not called the following:
Hawaii
New Mexico
Michigan
Nevada
Wisconsin

As you see above, I have called the election from Bush. I do not necessarily think I know more then the CNN pollsters. But, with provisional and military ballots, Kerry will have to win 75% of these votes. It is NOT going to happen, Kerry. I will probably hear New Mexico called tonight.

This will not be litigated significantly. Oh, sure, someone will file suit, but we are talking about huge margins; nothing like in 2000. It would be near death to the Democrats to throw a fit. Kerry needs to concede sometime on November 3rd. He's lost. Also, this election has been so long. We've been watching this stuff for almost 2 years. And the American people are not going to put up with this.

John Edwards is speaking. They are going to wait for another night to call it. What freaks!!!!!!! And they are going to count the provisionals in Ohio. This is going to go on forever. I am so angry. I'm just too tired to fight it. This is very bad news. What horrible sports. It is 120,000 freaking votes people!

I am shocked.

I do not believe that this is going to be another 2000. They should know better.

I am disappointed.

I would love to expand on this, but I'll wait until the talk shows tomorrow. I am going to bed. Gotta love mono! Thanks for reading! Come back again!


10 Comments:

  • At 6:49 PM , Blogger Hermionegonzo said...

    Stupid question: If people are in line when the polls close do they still get to vote or is it tough luck?

     
  • At 6:58 PM , Blogger Hermionegonzo said...

    I have been watching CNN for the last hour and they recently started talking about the Protestant Evangeligal factor. Has the EFC grown that much in the last four years that it is a factor. What are your thoughts?

     
  • At 8:28 PM , Blogger Hermionegonzo said...

    Actually Josh, there was a poor comment made earlier. I have been watching CNN and maybe a hour or so ago they were talking to Kerry's daughter. She said that they should count votes for those people who deserve to vote. That could be taken really the wrong way if you think about it. I wonder who in her mind deserves to vote. More frightening, who in her mind doesn't deserve to vote.

     
  • At 11:02 PM , Blogger Hermionegonzo said...

    You might be interested to know that CNN has it Bush 197, Kerry 188

     
  • At 11:51 PM , Blogger Hermionegonzo said...

    On Cnn its Bush 246 ti Kerry 195. Now who is being conservative?

     
  • At 12:26 AM , Blogger Hermionegonzo said...

    Colorado was called for Bush but they haven't called any of the others yet.

     
  • At 12:31 AM , Blogger Hermionegonzo said...

    Thune is winning but not called on CNN. The count is now Bush 249 to Kerry 200.

     
  • At 12:36 AM , Blogger Hermionegonzo said...

    CNN Bush 249 to Kerry 211 (Just called WA)
    And yes I have class in less than 7.5 hours!

     
  • At 12:46 AM , Blogger Hermionegonzo said...

    CNN hasn't called Minnesota yet but called Florida for Bush awhile ago. States stilll not called by CNN are Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Hawaii

     
  • At 12:56 AM , Blogger Hermionegonzo said...

    CNN has just said that Ohio is too close to call and they refuse to call it (Ohio is now a green state on the map). I am calling it quits for the night because I have stuff going on from 8am-10pm tomorrow and I need some sleep.

     

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